Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
